| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 3d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -6.8% | -6.8% |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Elon will use SpaceX to acquire Tesla via an all-stock deal, with announcement triggering a spike in Tesla's stock price. The author is positioned in deep OTM Tesla calls expiring Dec 2026 at a $990 strike, betting on a surprise M&A catalyst.
Author holds 223 Tesla $990 calls expiring Dec 18, 2026, betting on a surprise SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement that would drive dramatic upside. The merger would allow Elon to consolidate AI and robotics control across both entities, with shares trading in lockstep pre-close.
Author expects SpaceX to announce a merger with Tesla before or during the SpaceX IPO process, with the announcement likely at Tesla's June 11 shareholder meeting. A merger announcement would drive Tesla stock 30% higher immediately, with further upside if SpaceX IPO pops 50%, creating massive leverage on long call options.
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