| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | -0.6% | -1.0% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | -1.6% | -2.4% |
| 1w | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -3.1% | -3.1% |
| 1m | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 3m | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -18.5% | -18.5% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Betting that SPCX merger deal terms are announced within weeks, likely driven by midterm election politics. Author expects announcement-driven spike and plans to sell calls at extrinsic value on news.
Author holds 223 Tesla $990 calls expiring Dec 18, 2026, betting on a surprise SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement that would drive dramatic upside. The merger would allow Elon to consolidate AI and robotics control across both entities, with shares trading in lockstep pre-close.
Author expects SpaceX to announce a merger with Tesla before or during the SpaceX IPO process, with the announcement likely at Tesla's June 11 shareholder meeting. A merger announcement would drive Tesla stock 30% higher immediately, with further upside if SpaceX IPO pops 50%, creating massive leverage on long call options.
End of results.