WSB has posted 816 resolved theses in the past year — 41.2% were directionally right at 3 months.
Open-source Photoshop clones and competing tools threaten Adobe's SaaS seat demand. CEO transition in December combined with emerging free alternatives create downside risk into Q4 earnings, despite recent strong guidance.
SOFI is priced as a 21% ROTCE bank but earns only 6.7%, requiring valuations 2.15x tangible book that are unsustainable. Core problems include equity growth driven by dilution (81% from stock issuance, shares +14.3% YoY), $1.93B of intangible book value from loan fair-value marks, hidden credit losses (~3.7% all-in NCOs vs. 2.62% headline), stalling loan platform volumes, and Tech Platform revenue declining 23% YoY—yielding a forensic fair value of $11.46 (-27% from $15.80).
Reddit is severely undervalued at $154/share given 60%+ YoY revenue growth, 91% gross margins, $2.8B in cash, and $0.7 PEG ratio. Significant monetization upside remains in international markets (current $2.26 ARPU vs $11.85 US) and AI licensing deals represent unpriced optionality; author targets $1,000/share potential.
Nu Skin trades at 0.47x tangible book value with net working capital ($5.19/share) exceeding stock price ($4.82), essentially zero net debt, and an unfilled daily gap to $9.78 that represents +103% upside while still 5% below tangible book. Despite structural revenue decline and balance sheet deterioration risks, the combination of deep asset discount, high dividend yield (5%), and chart gap support presents significant asymmetric upside.
After two failed earnings trades, the author returns with 100 shares and 13 call contracts, betting that TSM's strong fundamentals and low expectations will drive an upside move on the next earnings announcement. The position combines a stable share base with leveraged call options for upside capture.
Progress Software generates substantial cash flow from established enterprise businesses (43% non-GAAP operating margin, $873M ARR) and the Domo acquisition adds data/AI capabilities. Valuation of ~$104/share implies 21% annualized returns if revenue stabilizes at $280-290M, margins improve through integration, and cash flow reduces elevated debt.
GoPro's proposed reverse merger at $6.27/share with only 10% remaining public appears legally vulnerable under Delaware law and economically unfair to minority shareholders. The company has genuine upside from its new interchangeable lens camera system (which sold out worldwide) and manageable fundamentals obscured by temporary cost pressures and debt that will convert to shares rather than cash. Blocking the deal through minority shareholder opposition would unlock this turnaround potential.
Petrobras is a world-class oil producer with extremely cheap pre-salt reserves ($25/barrel) and dominant refining capacity in Brazil, trading at half the valuation of comparable peers due to political noise and currency confusion. The valuation discount is unjustified; political risk cuts positively regardless of election outcome, and a stronger Brazilian real improves the company's substantial USD debt load.
DCF valuation model suggests Google is trading at a 28% discount to intrinsic value (~$492B equity value) based on conservative 12% FCFE growth, accounting for $700B AI capex debt paydown over years 2-8. AI improvements in ads, cloud, and ventures support the thesis that Google can maintain historical 18% CAGR despite maturity.
Apple's forward owner earnings yield of 2.8% is the lowest among the six companies and well below the author's >10% valuation threshold. The company offers insufficient return on owner earnings at current market cap.
Microsoft's forward owner earnings yield of 3.7% (base case) to 0.5% (strict case) falls significantly short of the >10% required return threshold. Despite being least burdened by capex among peers, it remains overvalued on Buffett-adjusted earnings.
Amazon's forward owner earnings yield of 4.1% (base case) to -1.0% (strict case) is below the author's investment threshold of >10%. Heavy AI infrastructure capex makes the valuation unattractive on an owner earnings basis.
Alphabet's forward owner earnings yield of 4.3% (base case) to -1.5% (strict case) fails to meet the >10% hurdle rate for value-oriented investors. AI capex intensity significantly erodes true owner earnings.
Oracle's forward owner earnings yield of 4.8% (base case) to -9.9% (strict case) is insufficient for value investors following Buffett's framework. Heavy capex for AI infrastructure makes the company unattractive at current $429B valuation.
Meta's forward owner earnings yield of 4.8% (base case) to -2.7% (strict case, including all capex) falls well short of the author's >10% threshold for acceptable valuations. High capital intensity in AI infrastructure undermines attractiveness at current market cap.
Author has generated significant gains over the past year by holding deep in-the-money LEAPS on Microsoft with mid-2027 and 2028 expirations at deep value strikes ($200, $215, $390). This reflects a bullish conviction on MSFT's medium-to-long-term upside.
Auxly Cannabis trades at a 20%+ FCF yield with 20% year-over-year growth, making it an attractive value play. Strong Q2 earnings and expected Q3 performance support further upside.
AIB is valued at ~$105M market cap but has secured a $1.32B Nebius contract for 50 MW over 12 years, de-risking customer acquisition. The company owns 120 MW of utility capacity across two sites, can finance CLT1 largely through customer prepayments without heavy common equity dilution, and should prove its model within a year as it phases the first 25 MW into operation.
Adobe suffers from chaotic management, lack of clear vision, and poor execution despite heavy spending. The company wasted billions on Firefly, an uncompetitive AI model that users ignore in favor of better third-party alternatives like GPT and Gemini, while lacking the talent and data to compete with tech giants. The insider view suggests structural dysfunction and declining confidence in company direction.
Micron is transitioning from cyclical memory supplier to AI infrastructure play. Current valuation at 6x forward P/E already prices in cycle downside; if AI/HBM contracts transform memory into durable infrastructure, re-rating to 3-4x higher multiples is achievable with limited downside if the thesis is wrong.