| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
AGBK is a Brazilian fintech lender (SoFi-like with AI-driven risk management similar to Upstart) poised to benefit from lower interest rates and fiscal discipline under Bolsonaro. As a small-cap, it offers higher volatility but direct exposure to Brazil's expected macroeconomic uptrend.
PICS is a Brazilian fintech (Venmo-like digital bank scaled to Cash App/SoFi equivalent) expected to benefit from lower interest rates and fiscal prudence under a Bolsonaro administration. The small-cap is volatile but positioned for upside in the post-election macroeconomic uptrend.
XP is Brazil's tech-forward retail brokerage (Charles Schwab meets Robinhood equivalent) positioned to benefit from a Bolsonaro win and the resulting fiscal and rate expectations. The iShares Brazil ETF rallied 9.1% on first-round results, demonstrating market appetite for Brazilian equities under this political scenario.
Bolsonaro is favored to win Brazil's October 25 presidential runoff (77% prediction market odds) and has historically never lost after leading the first round. His administration is expected to pursue fiscal cuts and lower interest rates, which the market views positively. A Bolsonaro win should trigger a multi-month macroeconomic uptrend in Brazilian equities.
End of results.