| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.7% | +6.7% |
| 3d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +6.1% | +6.1% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -7.5% | -7.5% |
| 1m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +12.1% | +12.1% |
| 3m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -6.8% | -6.8% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author holds NBIS as a core data center investment, selecting it over IREN despite preferring APLD for most data center exposure.
Author positions APLD as the best co-location provider for data center exposure, contrasting it favorably with IREN as an alternative to neocloud plays.
Severe shareholder dilution with 42% share count increase and $6 billion ATM still running. $700 million performance-free stock grant to founders and massive unfunded capex guidance ($11-16 billion) create compounding dilution. At 26x sales with no profit and missing revenue guidance, IREN is fundamentally overvalued.
Nebius reported 684% YoY revenue growth to $399M and achieved $129.5M EBITDA profitability while expanding AI infrastructure. With $2B Nvidia investment, early access to Blackwell/Rubin chips, a 1.2 GW Pennsylvania megasite approved, and $9B in cash, the company is positioned as a major AI infrastructure beneficiary.
End of results.