| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | -0.9% | +0.2% |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -6.5% | -7.1% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +15.9% | +20.9% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +9.9% | +7.5% |
| 3m | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | -25.6% | -26.3% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Ubiquiti dropped 50% from $1,100 to $580 due to a sudden influx of short positions, but fundamentals remain unchanged with strong revenue growth and management ownership at 86%. The author expects shorts to cover quickly given the stock's low volume, driving recovery to $900–$1,000.
Author holds multiple bullish call option contracts (20x $5 calls 4/24, 15x $5 calls 5/15, 10x $6 calls 6/18, 36x $5 calls 6/18) as leverage on expected TE upside, now riding mostly free house money after taking profits.
TE dumped to $4 and author bought the dip with 2000 shares and multiple call spreads across April-June expirations. Author is bullish on recovery and has already turned a $10k loss into $20k+ gains by selling most of the position and keeping free-roll exposure.
Author holds 60 TE call options with a $5.20-$5.30 breakeven and the stock currently trading at $6.40. With 2 months of expiry remaining, the position is in-the-money, implying conviction that TE will maintain or exceed current levels.
End of results.