| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | -4.3% | -0.3% |
| 3d | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | +1.2% | +0.5% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | +7.4% | +5.2% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | +6.7% | +8.2% |
| 3m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | -6.5% | -6.5% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Intuitive Surgical has traded down ~40% from recent highs, creating a value opportunity in a consolidating surgical robotics market. Despite increasing competition, the company is likely to retain majority market share and trade valuations at levels historically considered expensive are now reasonable.
Wix was trading at a 40% discount to intrinsic value ($90 FY26, $120 FY32) based on cash flow fundamentals despite market oversold sentiment. The author trimmed near fair value as IRR compressed, but the underlying thesis highlights an attractive risk-reward opportunity in a business with stable cash generation outside the AI narrative.
Celsius Holdings has too much growth priced in even after its 45% collapse. With the company already holding 3rd-highest market share, industry growth limited to 6.5%, and increased competition from large players like Costco, the stock at $29 is overvalued by 10-15% with minimal expected returns over 7 years.
Vertiv appears overvalued even under conservative growth assumptions. The author's DCF model projects intrinsic value around $140-173 per share through 2032 with normalized growth rates declining from 22% to 7.5%, suggesting the market bid the stock up excessively prior to its 40%+ decline.
End of results.