| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 3d | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -1.8% | -2.0% |
| 1w | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -2.9% | -2.7% |
| 1m | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| 3m | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 6m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -15.7% | -15.7% |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author accumulated a substantial long stock position in Bumble over five months, building conviction to near-300k shares and realizing $350k gains on the position.
SK Telecom holds 3.7M Anthropic shares marked at ~$1.0B, implying a ~$350–380B Anthropic valuation. The bull case is a directional bet on Anthropic's valuation continuing to rise and being monetized (via IPO or secondary), with a mature telecom business providing a floor underneath. Recent FY2025 audit confirms Anthropic gross margin improved to ~50% and is projected to reach ~77% by 2028.
Stable wireless business in South Korea with core valuation of 10-11B, plus ~5B value from 0.5% Anthropic stake (valued at 1T). Author believes implied Anthropic exposure per dollar of SKM (~0.3 per share) provides leveraged upside to Claude AI upside.
End of results.