| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 3d | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1w | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
INTR trades at 5-6x earnings with 16% ROE while the market prices in below-2026 earnings by 2029, implying excessive pessimism. Under a base case (19% ROE, BRL at 6.0, 8.5x exit), the stock could reach $9.20; upside to $17 is possible if efficiency targets are hit, while downside is cushioned by 0.9x book value.
Reddit's 20-year conversation archive creates a defensible moat that LLMs and advertisers value; despite logged-out search referral risks from AI Overviews, the monetization of engaged logged-in users is accelerating (US ARPU +53% in Q3, Reddit Max adoption ×3 QoQ). Base case projects revenue growth slowing from +27% to +17% through 2029 with net margin expanding to 35%, yielding a $228 target price (+138% from $95) by end-2029.
ServiceNow's 98% renewal rate, AI control-tower positioning, and organic cRPO growth of ~17% support a base case of +17.5% to +15.5% revenue CAGR through 2029. After adjusting for SBC and conservative exit multiples (35× FCF-minus-SBC), the author models $205 fair value, implying ~74% upside to $197 by late 2029 at a weighted 25/50/25 distribution.
End of results.