| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
First Watch is a high-quality, fast-growing breakfast chain trading at a depressed 10x earnings multiple despite superior unit economics (triple profit margins vs IHOP/Denny's), strong brand momentum, and a multi-decade expansion runway from 650 to 2,200 stores. The market undervalues it due to accounting confusion around depreciation and lease accounting.
First Watch is expanding its high-quality breakfast concept nationally with strong unit economics (18-20% margins) and 10-12% annual growth. The stock appears mispriced with true earnings multiples closer to 10x despite surface-level 40x PE, offering 25% annual upside potential over the next decade if restaurant economics hold.
End of results.