u/k_ristovski

5 theses · first seen Aug 21, 2026

Window	Theses	Resolved	Wins	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	1	1	0	0%	-2.0%	-2.0%
3d	5	5	1	20%	-1.4%	-1.4%
1w	5	5	0	0%	-2.1%	-0.2%
1m	4	4	2	50%	-13.1%	-12.3%
3m	1	1	1	100%	-7.2%	-7.2%
6m	1	1	1	100%	-0.7%	-0.7%
1y	1	1	0	0%	+68.4%	+68.4%

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$ZGr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish

u/k_ristovski · 27d ago4 prior · 100% at 3mo

“Will buy on Monday”

I think Zillow is undervalued (will buy on Monday)

Zillow's business model is transitioning from advertising-first to a higher-margin referral and mortgage model, with restructuring expected to drive operating profit above $200m (vs. $50m currently) and compress the P/E multiple from 126x to 27x. Non-operating assets of ~$1b plus deferred tax assets position the stock for substantial upside as the housing market recovers and AI-driven features improve user engagement.

At post $28.15Now $34.37+22.1% since postedas of Oct 23, 1:45 PM ET

1d—

3d-0.5%

1w-0.2%

1m—

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$APPr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish

u/k_ristovski · 35d ago4 prior · 100% at 3mo

Applovin looks cheap (but is it?)

AppLovin's $110b market cap prices in $35b of value from unproven adjacent markets (non-gaming apps, open web, connected TV) where it has no competitive advantage against entrenched players like Google, Meta, and TikTok. Revenue growth is now driven entirely by higher ad prices rather than volume, and management's expectation of sustained 20-30% growth requires implausibly large market share gains, making the stock fairly valued to overvalued at current levels.

At post $308.06Now $260.25-15.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d—

3d+7.2%

1w+0.9%

1m-13.6%

3m—

6m—

1y—

original post →

$ZMr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish

u/k_ristovski · 63d ago4 prior · 100% at 3mo

45% of Zoom has nothing to do with Zoom's business

Zoom's core business is valued at $17.4B with strong free cash flow above $1.1B, while 45% of its $31.5B market cap derives from non-business assets including a $6B+ stake in Anthropic. Upcoming Q2-Q3 unrealized gains from the Anthropic IPO and potential post-IPO capital allocation (acquisitions, buybacks, dividends) could drive significant upside.

At post $107.43Now $96.82-9.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 1:45 PM ET

1d—

3d-2.4%

1w-8.4%

1m-17.4%

3m—

6m—

1y—

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$NKEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish

u/k_ristovski · 73d ago4 prior · 100% at 3mo

Nike: Down 75%, insiders are buying

Nike has fallen 75% from overvaluation and self-inflicted damage from an aggressive online-only strategy that hurt margins. New CEO Elliott Hill is reversing course and restoring profitability, but the market underestimates management's ability to achieve slight growth with 10%+ operating margins—setting up insider buying as a contrarian opportunity.

At post $40.89Now $37.30-8.8% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET

1d-2.0%

3d-1.4%

1w-3.0%

1m-10.4%

3m—

6m—

1y—

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$SHOPr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish

u/k_ristovski · 1616d ago4 prior · 100% at 3mo

Shopify company analysis and valuation - 80% down and still expensive? ($SHOP)

Shopify trades at $364, which the author values at $276 per share using a DCF model assuming 25% revenue growth declining to 3%, and operating margins improving to 25%. Even at current depressed levels, the stock appears modestly overvalued relative to fundamentals; at its prior peak of $1,800, the company would have needed unrealistic 50% annual growth and 30% margins to justify the valuation.

At post $36.85Now $169.47+359.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET

1d—

3d-9.6%

1w+0.1%

1m-10.9%

3m-7.2%

6m-0.7%

1y+68.4%

original post →

End of results.