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u/miguel_equivara

4 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d33267%+3.5%+0.5%
3d44375%+1.7%-0.4%
1w444100%+1.3%+2.8%
1m444100%+9.2%+13.7%
3m33267%+5.1%+16.5%
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$SHOPr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/miguel_equivara · 66d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

I passed on Shopify at $94 and it's $149 fourteen weeks later. I did the full work to find out if I was wrong: P/E, FCF, Owner's Earnings it's still expensive.

Shopify's business is genuinely accelerating with 34% revenue growth and strong retention, but current valuation at $149 is expensive across all metrics: 100x owner's earnings, 80x FCF, and 72x forward earnings. Even the author's five-year intrinsic value model yields only 4.2% annual returns from current levels, indicating future gains are already priced in.

At post $152.90Now $166.89+9.2% since postedas of Oct 29, 4:01 PM ET
1d—
3d-3.6%
1w-5.1%
1m-7.0%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$SEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/miguel_equivara · 95d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

Sea Limited is the MercadoLibre of Southeast Asia: same marketplace plus fintech, all three businesses already profitable but its trading roughly half MELI's multiple and 40% down its high

Sea Limited operates a profitable three-part business model (marketplace, fintech, gaming) similar to MercadoLibre in Southeast Asia. Trading at 11x forward EV/EBITDA and a 0.4 PEG—roughly half MELI's valuation—despite strong fundamentals: profitability, 47% revenue growth, and positive FCF of $4.4B.

At post $106.24Now $76.56-27.9% since postedas of Oct 29, 4:01 PM ET
1d+0.5%
3d+0.5%
1w+4.5%
1m+12.3%
3m-29.2%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$MELIr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/miguel_equivara · 144d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo

MELI: Revenue Up 49%, Stock Down 40% — in a High-Growth Stock is the Dip an Entry Point?

MercadoLibre's 40% stock decline misses the investment case: two-thirds of margin compression stems from accounting for a fast-growing credit book whose provisions now will convert to profit as cohorts season. With revenue growing 49% and the stock trading at 3x EV/sales (vs 10x historical) and below-1 PEG, the market prices a proven LatAm fintech/e-commerce leader like a maturing retailer.

At post $1,610.00Now $1,696.00+5.3% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d-1.3%
3d-1.3%
1w+1.6%
1m+15.0%
3m+16.5%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$HOODr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/miguel_equivara · 158d ago3 prior · 67% at 3mo
Long HOOD

Robinhood's stock fell 50% from $153 to $74. The nine-revenue-stream thesis I bought in 2024 just became twelve. I'm still not adding here

Robinhood's multi-stream revenue model (nine growing to twelve revenue lines) and Gen Z demographic moat, combined with Trump Account access and accelerating banking/prediction markets growth, justify the long-term thesis despite valuation premium and near-term deceleration versus fintech peers.

At post $84.84Now $83.92-1.1% since posted2m ago
1d+11.2%
3d+11.2%
1w+4.1%
1m+16.3%
3m+27.9%
6m—
1y—
original post →

End of results.