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u/miguel_equivara

3 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d111100%+0.5%+0.5%
3d222100%-1.6%-1.6%
1w222100%-0.3%-0.3%
1m111100%+12.3%+12.3%
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$SHOPr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/miguel_equivara · 16d ago2 prior · awaiting results

I passed on Shopify at $94 and it's $149 fourteen weeks later. I did the full work to find out if I was wrong: P/E, FCF, Owner's Earnings it's still expensive.

Shopify's business is genuinely accelerating with 34% revenue growth and strong retention, but current valuation at $149 is expensive across all metrics: 100x owner's earnings, 80x FCF, and 72x forward earnings. Even the author's five-year intrinsic value model yields only 4.2% annual returns from current levels, indicating future gains are already priced in.

At post $152.90Now $128.79-15.8% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
1d—
3d-3.6%
1w-5.1%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$SEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/miguel_equivara · 45d ago2 prior · awaiting results

Sea Limited is the MercadoLibre of Southeast Asia: same marketplace plus fintech, all three businesses already profitable but its trading roughly half MELI's multiple and 40% down its high

Sea Limited operates a profitable three-part business model (marketplace, fintech, gaming) similar to MercadoLibre in Southeast Asia. Trading at 11x forward EV/EBITDA and a 0.4 PEG—roughly half MELI's valuation—despite strong fundamentals: profitability, 47% revenue growth, and positive FCF of $4.4B.

At post $106.24Now $106.240.0% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
1d+0.5%
3d+0.5%
1w+4.5%
1m+12.3%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$MELIr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/miguel_equivara · 94d ago2 prior · awaiting results

MELI: Revenue Up 49%, Stock Down 40% — in a High-Growth Stock is the Dip an Entry Point?

MercadoLibre's 40% stock decline misreads margin compression, which is driven primarily by accounting-required provisions on a fast-growing credit book (+87%) and deliberate reinvestment in logistics and market share—not deterioration. With revenue growing 49% and the stock trading at 3x EV/sales versus a 10x historical average, the market is pricing a proven compounder like a declining retailer, offering asymmetric upside.

Now $1,897.37as of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
original post →

End of results.