u/spyapple

10 theses · first seen Sep 4, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d44250%+0.3%+0.1%
3d1010660%+0.3%+0.9%
1w1010660%+1.2%+1.5%
1m1010660%+5.1%+5.8%
3m77457%+7.1%+7.6%
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$PNRr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 83d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo
Long PNR

Pentair/PNR is undervalued. LONG

Pentair trades at 16.3x EV/FCF and 14x P/E, well below historical averages for a quality water tech business. A DCF model using 748M in current FCF growing 8-9% annually yields ~$125 intrinsic value; current price of ~$67 implies 85%+ upside once the market reprices the stock, with the recent pool segment decline viewed as temporary inventory destocking rather than fundamental deterioration.

At post $67.19Now $70.73+5.3% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d-2.1%
3d-1.5%
1w-5.4%
1m-15.6%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$DECKr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 85d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Deckers Brands / DECK is undervalued. LONG

Deckers is trading at 13.8x P/E and 11.3x EV/FCF, well below its 22x historical average, with a pristine balance sheet of $1.6B net cash and $1.05B annual free cash flow. A DCF model assuming 9% FCF growth yields an intrinsic value of ~$225/share, implying 130% upside from the current $97 level despite near-term macro headwinds.

At post $97.44Now $85.02-12.8% since posted1m ago
1d—
3d-6.4%
1w-4.5%
1m-15.2%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$CRMr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 87d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Salesforce / CRM is undervalued. LONG

Salesforce is trading at a historically low 20-22x P/E (vs. 10-year average >100x) with strong fundamentals: 10% revenue growth, 78% gross margins, $15B operating cash flow, and $6.6B quarterly free cash flow. DCF analysis using conservative 10% growth and 18x terminal multiple yields ~$505 intrinsic value vs. current $190 stock price, implying 165% upside.

At post $197.16Now $226.71+15.0% since posted1m ago
1d—
3d-0.0%
1w-0.7%
1m+31.2%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$ALGNr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 92d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

ALGN is undervalued right now based on sec filings and dcf math

ALGN is trading at a significant valuation discount with an EV/EBITDA of 13.3x versus its historical 24.5x average. DCF analysis using conservative assumptions (14% FCF growth, 8.5% WACC, 22x terminal multiple) yields a fair value of $356.94 per share, implying 111% upside from current levels around $169.

At post $172.89Now $153.60-11.2% since posted1m ago
1d—
3d+1.1%
1w+0.4%
1m-10.4%
3m-13.3%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$CLXr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 92d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Clorox long

Clorox trades at a 15.5x P/E, well below its 10-year historical average of 30-45x, with EV/EBITDA near multi-year lows despite solid fundamentals: 1.67B quarterly revenue, 6.17 trailing twelve-month EPS, and strong free cash flow. A DCF valuation model suggests intrinsic value substantially above current price, with potential 200%+ upside to $280+ over 4-5 years as multiples re-rate and free cash flow normalizes.

At post $95.74Now $89.96-6.0% since posted1m ago
1d—
3d+7.7%
1w+7.0%
1m-2.2%
3m-8.1%
6m—
1y—
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$CMCSAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 93d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Comcast corp long

Comcast trades at a severe valuation discount with EV/EBITDA under 5.2x and P/E of 7.3-7.9x versus historical 14-15x multiples. DCF analysis on stable $16-18B annual free cash flow yields intrinsic value of $92-95 per share versus current $24, implying 280%+ upside as the market re-rates the stock and recognizes its strong cash generation.

At post $24.56Now $23.71-3.5% since posted1m ago
1d—
3d+1.5%
1w+3.3%
1m+8.4%
3m-5.5%
6m—
1y—
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$ACNr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 98d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Accenture long

Accenture trades at a severe valuation disconnect at $135–$140 (10.8–11.5x forward P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA) despite strong fundamentals: $73.1B trailing revenue, $12.9B trailing EBITDA, and $11B+ free cash flow guidance for 2026. DCF and historical P/E re-rating analysis suggest fair value of $312–$322, implying 123%+ upside from current levels.

At post $163.35Now $261.81+60.3% since posted1m ago
1d+5.2%
3d+0.8%
1w+3.5%
1m+13.8%
3m+51.4%
6m—
1y—
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$ZTSr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 101d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Zoetis Inc. : LONG

Zoetis is trading at a severe valuation disconnect following Q1 2026 earnings panic, with a trailing P/E of 12.4x versus its historical 25-30x despite 70%+ gross margins and reliable cash flow generation. A two-stage DCF model using conservative 6% growth and 8.5% WACC yields a fair value of $175 per share, implying 130%+ upside from current $75 levels over 18-24 months as the market re-rates the stock.

At post $75.35Now $81.61+8.3% since postedas of Nov 2, 10:45 AM ET
1d—
3d+2.1%
1w+2.6%
1m+3.2%
3m+8.8%
6m—
1y—
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$TSCOr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 102d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

Tractor Supply Company: LONG

Tractor Supply is severely undervalued at $29.36, trading at an 8.8x EV/EBITDA multiple well below historical norms for a dominant rural retailer with 2,600+ stores, steady 36%+ gross margins, and consistent mid-single-digit sales growth. A DCF model incorporating 5% CAGR on $1.6B+ operating cash flow projects intrinsic value significantly higher, offering 140% upside as multiples normalize despite near-term downside risk.

At post $30.11live price unavailable
1d+2.3%
3d+2.3%
1w-0.4%
1m+15.4%
3m+9.0%
6m—
1y—
original post →
$ORCLr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/spyapple · 103d ago9 prior · 57% at 3mo

ORACLE Super LONG

Oracle is severely undervalued at $125.84 with cloud infrastructure growing 77% YoY, $638B in contracted RPO backlog, and a 18-19x EV/EBITDA multiple. A DCF model accounting for normalizing capex and conservative 22% cloud CAGR supports 200%+ upside, despite near-term downside risks to $90.

At post $120.04Now $121.30+1.1% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d-4.2%
3d-4.2%
1w+6.3%
1m+22.0%
3m+7.6%
6m—
1y—
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End of results.