Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
AMD can capture significant percentage upside by gaining 10–15% of the data center GPU market through competitive pricing and memory advantages without needing to displace Nvidia, though ROCm tooling maturity remains a key execution risk.
AMD broke out after lagging QQQ and SPY despite strong market rallies. Author expects continued upside, having taken profits on short-term position and maintaining a call spread for further gains with theta risk managed.
Author holds synthetic long AMD via LEAPS purchased across 2025-2026, expecting stock to reach strike levels by expiration. Fundamental conviction based on conference calls and analyst presentations; plans to hold through expiration and exercise.
At $630, AMD's sub-1% economic FCF yield requires unrealistic 55% annual FCF/share growth to meet the author's 15% return hurdle, making current valuation unjustifiable even if growth is possible.
AMD is benefiting massively from the OpenAI deal where OpenAI will spend $90B–$100B on AMD hardware while receiving warrants worth ~$100B at current prices, creating a self-funding arrangement that validates AMD's chip demand and equity value.
GPUs should be viewed through the same structural, non-cyclical lens as memory because HBM is a legally contracted bottleneck for GPU deployment. As demand for AI and AGI scales aggressively, memory capacity locked through 2027 acts as a binding infrastructure constraint, supporting sustained pricing power for GPU makers.
GRASBY PAUL DARREN (EVP & CSO at ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC) reported an open-market sale of 15,000 shares of AMD at an average $514.91, roughly $7,723,650, in a Form 4 filed 2026-08-18.
AMD trades at 107x EV/FCF and would require unsustainable 27% annual FCF growth for a decade to justify current valuation. Despite AI's long-term potential, near-term deployment results show productivity losses, not gains; combined with increasing competition from new entrants (including Elon's chip efforts), AMD will likely see significant downside when expectations reset.
Author is bearish short-term (bought puts) but title suggests conviction in upside to all-time highs. The sarcastic framing indicates a contrarian bullish view.
AMD shows strong institutional accumulation and leading momentum in relative rotation graphs tied to dark pool flows, suggesting positive institutional positioning.
AMD could follow Micron's trajectory to $1T market cap as AI demand accelerates, with potential compounding multi-year chip commitments from Meta driving structural support for the stock's valuation multiple.
AMD has recovered from its "money destroyer" reputation, and the author's sustained buying at dips has paid off. The post celebrates gains from this contrarian bet against bearish sentiment.
Author holds AMD shares purchased below $100 and believes the stock will go significantly higher. They sold a covered call prematurely and are seeking to keep their shares while managing the short call obligation.
Author is taking a large put position on AMD as a bearish hedge, expecting downside movement. The metaphor of 'fire insurance for a burning house' suggests conviction that the stock is in trouble.
AMD has peaked at resistance near 472 and is set for a decline. The author advises exiting bullish positions while still profitable.
Author built a heavy position in AMD calls and saw significant gains. AMD was the primary driver of a 250k profit from a 17k starting account over one month.
AMD showed sustained upside momentum despite typical post-earnings sell-offs, with the author holding 3x leveraged positions through earnings and successfully scaling in. The author's bullish conviction was validated by consistent daily gains, leading to profitable exit of call options and substantial portfolio gains.
Author holds AMD as part of a $2M portfolio that has appreciated significantly. Despite expecting near-term market pulldown, maintaining long stock position while hedging with covered calls.
Author expects AMD to reach $600, expressing confidence in the stock's upward trajectory with a bullish outlook on the company's future performance.
Author has been accumulating AMD since April 2025 at ~$80 and continues adding to positions, suggesting conviction in future upside. The framing as a money duplicator implies confidence in continued gains.