Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
SNDK is caught in the AI capex downcycle and faces pressure from major holders liquidating positions; the author expects declines as the narrative around profitable AI applications collapses.
Rapidly increasing volatility in memory stocks, exemplified by SNDK's repeated +/- 10% single-day swings since May, mirrors historical patterns preceding bubble bursts and cyclical market tops. This volatility spike suggests a significant downside move may be imminent.
Author has invested over $203k in SNDK stock at an average price of $1412.84 per share. The position is structured as shares rather than options, allowing for recovery potential if the position declines.
SanDisk is tracing the same price trajectory Bitcoin followed from 2013–2017, but on a compressed timeline, with real tangible demand for memory in AI data centers and high margins offsetting cyclical semiconductor concerns. The stock will continue that pattern toward $126,198 by November 2027, supported by favorable ownership dynamics and upcoming earnings catalyst.
Chip sector has corrected 60% to the 200-day moving average and represents a mean reversion opportunity. Despite AI hype cooling and market concerns over spending, fundamentals remain intact (MSFT beat on Azure), and chips remain in structural shortage, setting up for recovery as AI adoption continues.
Author bought the dip on SNDK, betting on a bounce-back or recovery. The post suggests conviction in a near-term or medium-term upside move.
Author holds 4x puts at $2,100 strike expiring tomorrow as a hedge against a long position, hoping for a major crash. The position is speculative and described as a cheap bet on downside.
SanDisk (storage/memory supplier) will face margin compression and reduced demand as AI capex unwinds in 2027–2028 and profitability pressures force LLM providers to optimize efficiency, reducing storage and compute hardware purchases.
Samsung's production halt and potential supply shortage of memory chips will create tailwinds for SanDisk/Kioxia's NAND pricing and competitive positioning. Memory supply tightness supports SNDK pricing power.
Author expects SNDK to run to $2000 per share and anticipates a stock split at the next earnings announcement.
Author realized gains on SNDK through tactical trading around earnings dips and momentum plays, anticipating further gap-ups. Position involved initial stock purchases, call options sold in the 1200s, and repeated entries/exits that netted $38k profit.
Investor is doubling down on margin, allocating capital to Sandisk alongside Micron and Nebius positions, indicating confidence in the semiconductor sector recovery.
Author took a position in SNDK and regrets selling early, implying conviction in further upside.
Author is deploying profits from successful META puts into SNDK calls, indicating conviction in near-term upside for SanDisk.
Author holds 111 shares of SanDisk (memory/chip company) for exposure to AI-driven chip demand, despite high per-share price.
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