| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | -2.6% | -0.7% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | -3.6% | -3.0% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | -5.3% | -4.9% |
| 1m | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| 3m | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | +1.9% | +0.7% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
SPOT is undervalued and poised to hit all-time highs into earnings, justifying aggressive OTM call positions ahead of the earnings catalyst.
Spotify is transitioning from a mature streaming app to a dominant global audio platform with inflecting margins and multiple under-monetized levers. The market underestimates normalized earnings power; with revenue growth and margin expansion, earnings can compound much faster than top-line growth, supporting a $1,200 price target within a year.
Author believes the market is due for a collapse because current valuations are unsustainably inflated and cannot continue being artificially propped up.
Spotify is severely underbought and poised for significant growth driven by improving guidance and new revenue streams. The author believes the stock can reach $1500-2000 within a year and is holding $500k of OTM calls.
Spotify should already be at all-time highs; author has $300k in calls (both short-term and long-term leaps) plus margin shares ahead of earnings, betting on meaningful upside.
End of results.