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u/Adrian-The-Great

2 theses · first seen Aug 22, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d000———
3d1100%+2.2%+2.2%
1w1100%+4.4%+4.4%
1m000———
3m000———
6m000———
1y000———

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NVDAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish
u/Adrian-The-Great · 22d ago1 prior · awaiting results

NVDA grew revenue 85% and the stock rose 22%. Micron rose 725%. I think the interesting question is what you're actually buying at 21x.

NVIDIA's 21x valuation appears stretched when accounting for earnings quality. Unrealized gains on private equity stakes inflate reported earnings, high customer concentration (36% from two customers) poses risk, and $95bn in forward purchase commitments become liabilities if AI spending growth stalls. Share losses to competitors (Broadcom, Google TPUs) combined with decelerating hyperscaler capex could turn commitments from a moat into a problem.

At post $208.25Now $218.29+4.8% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
1d—
3d+2.2%
1w+4.4%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$MUr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish
u/Adrian-The-Great · 62d ago1 prior · awaiting results

Micron Stock and the $26.5 Billion Tell

Micron's take-or-pay contracts with price ceilings through 2030 signal management expects mean reversion after the current memory shortage ends; current earnings are driven almost entirely by price rather than volume growth, and the company has sacrificed upside optionality for stability—a trade not made by peers with durable competitive advantages.

At post $937.00Now $975.26+4.1% since postedas of Sep 11, 4:30 PM ET
original post →

End of results.