Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
STEVENS MARK A (Director at NVIDIA CORP) reported an open-market sale of 1,022,239 shares of NVDA at an average $230.51, roughly $235,636,867, in a Form 4 filed 2026-09-08.
Nvidia is infrastructure plays caught in the middle of AI hype cycles. AI pure-plays like Nvidia face near-term headwinds as Wall Street realizes model limitations, but long-term survivors will own AI infrastructure, making them bullish over multi-year horizons.
NVDA will rally strongly this week as the market digests blockbuster earnings; the author is betting on upside expiration Friday.
Author is bearish on NVDA and has entered a $30,000 position in $225 strike puts expiring 8/28, betting against recent call-driven rallies. The thesis is directionally bearish with significant risk capital committed.
Author is bullish on NVDA ahead of earnings, citing Michael Burry's call position as validation. The $50k YOLO into call options implies confidence in near-term upside before expiry.
Nvidia faces structural headwinds from political backlash against data center buildout and power consumption concerns, combined with slowing capex deployment despite supply-chain efforts. Multiple catalysts—bond market stress, failed IPOs of AI competitors, and local policy pushback—could trigger a significant correction in AI chip demand before year-end.
Nvidia is an amazing company; the author expresses admiration for the business and Jensen Huang's leadership, implying confidence in the company's fundamentals and trajectory.
Nvidia is increasingly providing financial backstops and vendor financing (~$230B+ in lease obligations and residual-value guarantees) to sustain chip demand, a strategy that concentrates downside risk. A weakening in AI chip demand could stress its balance sheet and reduce investment values, mirroring the failed vendor-financing strategy that brought down Lucent Technologies during the dot-com bubble.
NVDA has overextended compute investments in LLMs that will never generate sufficient returns; the company and its peers will hold massive unrealized losses and are orchestrating a gradual share offload to retail before an inevitable market correction driven by the insolvency of AI models.
NVIDIA's 21x valuation appears stretched when accounting for earnings quality. Unrealized gains on private equity stakes inflate reported earnings, high customer concentration (36% from two customers) poses risk, and $95bn in forward purchase commitments become liabilities if AI spending growth stalls. Share losses to competitors (Broadcom, Google TPUs) combined with decelerating hyperscaler capex could turn commitments from a moat into a problem.
Nvidia's customer concentration jumped from 0% to 61% in four years, with three of the four largest customers (Google, Amazon, Meta) actively building competing chips. The $500B financing deal where Nvidia backstops 25% of collateral losses mirrors late-90s telecom equipment financing structures that preceded major writedowns, suggesting the market is mispricing execution risk despite credit markets already pricing in concern.
NVIDIA positioned to benefit from strong chipmaker sector momentum, evidenced by CoreWeave's 14% aftermarket surge and robust earnings from related companies. Author expects bullish performance to continue through late month and profit from options positions.
Author purchased $800k of NVDA at a market top on Friday, implying the stock has declined since entry and suggesting poor timing on a large position at an unfavorable price.
NVDA is a short-term buy at current levels due to convergence of catalysts and historical precedent of buyers swarming when price dips to these levels. The author expects a quick recovery driven by incoming volatility and past patterns.
NVDA is undervalued given 80% revenue growth YoY. Author is levered long via 3x 320/420c call spreads (Sep 2027 expiry), betting on longer-dated upside.
NVDA is undervalued given 80% revenue growth YoY. Author is levered long via 20x 210/215c call spreads (Nov expiry), betting on near-term upside.
NVDA is undervalued given 80% revenue growth YoY. Author is levered long via 1x 230c 1/21/28 call, betting on sustained upside with a Jan 2028 expiry.
NVDA is undervalued given 80% revenue growth YoY. Author is levered long via 59 shares, multiple call spreads (210/215c Nov, 320/420c Sep '27), and a 230c Jan 2028 call, betting on continued upside.
Author will be long ~1300 shares of NVDA due to pin risk from assignment and needs the stock to hold above $215 and not fall more than 6% to avoid significant losses. Bullish on NVDA's ability to stay above this level overnight.
NVDA appears lagging in dark pool-weighted relative rotation analysis, suggesting weakening institutional interest and momentum relative to the tech sector.