Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author will be long ~1300 shares of NVDA due to pin risk from assignment and needs the stock to hold above $215 and not fall more than 6% to avoid significant losses. Bullish on NVDA's ability to stay above this level overnight.
NVDA appears lagging in dark pool-weighted relative rotation analysis, suggesting weakening institutional interest and momentum relative to the tech sector.
The AI capex boom will unwind in 2027–2028 as profitability pressures force LLM providers to optimize efficiency, reducing compute demand. NVDA faces additional headwinds from ASIC competition, customer concentration (3 customers = 54% of revenue), and China's pivot to domestic alternatives, making it the primary victim of the capex cycle collapse.
NVIDIA delivered record Q1 FY27 results with $81.6B revenue (up 85% YoY), $58.3B net income (up 211% YoY), and $91B Q2 guidance well above expectations. Data Center revenue surged 92% YoY to $75.2B, gross margins expanded to 74.9%, and the company initiated an $80B buyback while raising dividends 25x, signaling management confidence despite near-term stock underperformance due to already-priced perfection.
NVDA has experienced an insane run driven by FOMO chasing and institutionalization, but the market has already priced in unrealistic growth (80% earnings growth, massive capex acceleration). With weaker momentum at the 7500 technical level and all good news already baked in, a significant correction is imminent.
Author is making a large $600k YOLO bet on NVDA ahead of earnings, implying bullish conviction on a significant price move or positive earnings outcome.
Despite recent earnings disappointments, the author is confident enough in near-term upside to allocate a significant portion of recent trading profits into call options on NVDA.
Author executed a leveraged directional call options trade ahead of earnings, achieving a +1100% return by playing an upside move in the stock. The thesis reflects a bullish directional bet on NVDA executed as a short-term catalyst play.
Long-term secular demand from AI will support Nvidia valuation despite near-term energy cost uncertainties. Author holds 50k accumulated from Covid-era lows.
Author expected NVDA to reach new all-time highs and bought 220 calls with 5/11 expiry, taking profits on the opening green candle. The bullish thesis was validated by the successful short-term trade.
Author holds a good bit of NVDA calls as part of a semiconductor-focused portfolio that generated significant gains.
The post frames a comparative choice between betting on chip designers (NVDA) versus chip owners (AMZN), implying NVDA may face headwinds as large cloud providers reduce reliance on external GPU suppliers through in-house silicon.
Author holds 13 contracts of $220 strike calls expiring two days after May earnings, citing unusually high open interest (53k contracts, 13x average) on $235 calls as confirmation of bullish thesis. Expects NVDA to trade above $235 by expiration.
Nvidia bull positions are being caught in a trap as the Nasdaq has tumbled 600 points following Nvidia results, indicating a major reversal for bullish investors who were caught off-guard by the market weakness.
Author consistently profited from scalping NVDA options, using near or at-the-money calls 2-5 months out. Strategy exploits pullbacks for 20-50% gains.
End of results.