| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50% | -2.2% | +2.0% |
| 3d | 7 | 7 | 5 | 71% | -3.4% | +2.1% |
| 1w | 7 | 7 | 5 | 71% | -0.8% | +5.7% |
| 1m | 7 | 7 | 3 | 43% | -13.8% | -4.6% |
| 3m | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | -22.0% | -14.9% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
PANW trades at an extreme 299x earnings and 30x revenue, which the author considers economically indefensible and enters fairy-tale territory. The author plans to establish put option positions, betting on a significant downward correction.
Paypal trades at 8x PE, roughly one-third the S&P 500 average of 24x, representing significant undervaluation. Any positive news could trigger significant upside as the market reprices the stock higher.
Volatility has calmed and weak hands have exited. Author is betting on upside with 100 FD calls and 60 weekly calls, suggesting confidence that the stock won't go much lower from $7.46.
Author is doubling down on Virgin Galactic calls after a significant drawdown, betting on a reversal to the upside.
Author believes pre-IPO shares in SpaceX will surge dramatically at IPO launch on June 12th due to inflow of capital from the anticipated $1.5T valuation. With simplistic math, a 1% capital redirect would push SPCE shares to ~$150 per share.
Carvana faces bearish technicals with a death cross pattern, insider share dumping, 30% dilution over two years, and vulnerability to consumer pressure from inflation and rising gas prices, particularly due to reliance on subprime auto loans. The stock is unwinding after a 5-1 split and earnings, suggesting all positive catalysts are priced in. The author holds profitable put positions.
Oil has tanked to below $100/barrel due to market crisis, but the author believes a recovery is likely and bought 1,000 barrels at $96.73 cost basis for June delivery. A single positive catalyst could trigger a 5-10k profit overnight.
CVNA has rallied from $280 to $390 but is flashing bearish moving average signals. With a thin 6% profit margin, rising fuel and inflation pose significant headwinds. The recent stock split is symbolic hype with no fundamental value, and once enthusiasm fades, downside risk emerges.
End of results.