| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33% | -4.2% | +0.8% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | -6.2% | +2.1% |
| 1w | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | -9.7% | -0.6% |
| 1m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | -12.7% | -12.7% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is doubling down on Virgin Galactic calls after a significant drawdown, betting on a reversal to the upside.
Author believes pre-IPO shares in SpaceX will surge dramatically at IPO launch on June 12th due to inflow of capital from the anticipated $1.5T valuation. With simplistic math, a 1% capital redirect would push SPCE shares to ~$150 per share.
Carvana faces bearish technicals with a death cross pattern, insider share dumping, 30% dilution over two years, and vulnerability to consumer pressure from inflation and rising gas prices, particularly due to reliance on subprime auto loans. The stock is unwinding after a 5-1 split and earnings, suggesting all positive catalysts are priced in. The author holds profitable put positions.
Oil has tanked to below $100/barrel due to market crisis, but the author believes a recovery is likely and bought 1,000 barrels at $96.73 cost basis for June delivery. A single positive catalyst could trigger a 5-10k profit overnight.
CVNA has rallied from $280 to $390 but is flashing bearish moving average signals. With a thin 6% profit margin, rising fuel and inflation pose significant headwinds. The recent stock split is symbolic hype with no fundamental value, and once enthusiasm fades, downside risk emerges.
End of results.