| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | +0.6% | +1.0% |
| 3d | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | -4.3% | -2.8% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | -2.4% | -1.1% |
| 1m | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | +6.2% | +6.0% |
| 3m | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | -1.7% | +0.1% |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
The author continues to hold bullish conviction on Nvidia despite broader sector skepticism, suggesting confidence in its business quality relative to peers.
The author remains bullish on TSMC as an exception within an otherwise overvalued semiconductor sector, implying confidence in its competitive moat and differentiation.
Micron surged from below $100 to $800 on strong numbers but faces structural headwinds: intense competition in memory, margin compression from factory buildout, and likely demand softening will lead to EPS deterioration.
Intel has failed at manufacturing and innovation and now trades at an 80 forward PE with only 7% growth, making it the most overvalued semiconductor name. The company's claims to overtake AMD and TSMC lack credibility given its execution failures.
The semiconductor ETF has become overvalued with most holdings trading at 40+ forward PE multiples on only 15% revenue growth. The author sold half their position after 4 years because valuations no longer support the hype-driven narrative of endless demand.
End of results.