| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Micron's recent 8x price surge to $800 masks deteriorating fundamentals; brutal competition in memory will drive margin compression as new factory capacity floods the market and demand growth slows long-term.
The author remains bullish on Nvidia despite sector-wide concerns, suggesting selective conviction in the best-of-breed semiconductor manufacturers rather than the sector broadly.
The author remains bullish on TSMC despite sector-wide concerns, suggesting selective conviction in the best-of-breed semiconductor manufacturers rather than the sector broadly.
Intel is the most egregious valuation offender within semiconductors, trading at an 80 forward PE ratio despite only 7% revenue growth last quarter and a track record of failed execution in manufacturing and innovation.
The semiconductor ETF is overvalued as a sector, with more than half of holdings trading at 40+ forward PE ratios despite only 15% revenue growth. The author sold half their position after a 4x gain, citing unsustainable valuations driven by hype rather than fundamentals.
End of results.