| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 3d | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | -3.5% | -3.5% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| 1m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Riot beat revenue and production guidance in Q3, but liquidated 90% of its bitcoin treasury (11,380 down to 2,418 BTC) to fund AI/HPC expansion. With a $573M bridge loan maturing December 31, 2026, the company faces a critical refinancing test; the bear case hinges on whether management can refinance this liability without further asset sales.
SuperMicro's Q1 earnings beat internal guides on revenue and EPS, but negative operating cash flow of -$434M despite $1.59B net income exposes a critical structural risk: at 12% gross margin, the business consumes cash as fast as it books profit. The bear case narrows to one question—whether Q2 cash flow turns positive or reveals a persistent model flaw.
Palantir trades at 148x earnings and 69x sales, pricing in years of growth already realized. Q3 guidance shows deceleration to +83% growth from +93% the prior quarter, and consensus expects revenue above management's own range, suggesting the multiple is not justified unless management raises guidance and US commercial maintains triple-digit growth.
SOFI is priced as a 21% ROTCE bank but earns only 6.7%, requiring valuations 2.15x tangible book that are unsustainable. Core problems include equity growth driven by dilution (81% from stock issuance, shares +14.3% YoY), $1.93B of intangible book value from loan fair-value marks, hidden credit losses (~3.7% all-in NCOs vs. 2.62% headline), stalling loan platform volumes, and Tech Platform revenue declining 23% YoY—yielding a forensic fair value of $11.46 (-27% from $15.80).
End of results.