“holds PLTR (bought in 2025, up ~65%, now ~8.5% of my portfolio)”
Palantir at ~$500B: can someone show me where my valuation math is wrong?
At $208 (~$500B market cap), Palantir is overvalued even under optimistic scenarios. A 40% revenue CAGR through 2031 yields only 3% annualized returns at reasonable exit multiples (35x FCF); justifying current prices requires unrealistic 50%+ growth rates or unexpectedly high FCF multiples for a maturing software company.
At post $208.67·Now $196.75-5.7% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-3.7%
3d-10.8%
1w-7.7%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
“Taking profits and rotating money out; previously held PLTR among AI positions”
I’m rotating some money out of AI. This may age terribly.
At $190, Palantir trades at unsustainable multiples requiring 50%+ annual FCF/share growth for five years to justify the valuation against a 12.5% return hurdle. The author is taking profits and rotating away despite believing in the business fundamentals.
At post $187.48·Now $196.75+4.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-0.3%
1w+0.7%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Burry is shorting AI's hype but Ackman is betting on them. Who's right?
Palantir trades at an extreme 84x forward earnings and 138x sales, pricing in years of perfect execution with no room for ordinary slowdowns. The bear case is not that the business will fail, but that valuation leaves no margin of safety despite the company's solid fundamentals and cash generation.
At post $191.79·Now $196.75+2.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+0.4%
3d-1.1%
1w-2.5%
1m+2.6%
3m—
6m—
1y—
Sometimes an “oops” turns $8k into $83k
Author was bullish on Palantir 5+ years ago and convinced his wife to invest $8,000, which grew to $83,000 by holding through a long-term bull market. The position demonstrates conviction in the company's long-term value, though the author has now taken profits on 70% of the position.
At post $177.64·Now $196.75+10.8% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+3.1%
1w+6.8%
1m+4.7%
3m—
6m—
1y—
PLTR at ~75x sales: how do you underwrite a switching-cost moat that a government is actively trying to test?
Palantir's 75x sales multiple depends on an unproven switching-cost moat that management presents as permanent but is contingent on never being seriously tested. The NHS contract—with a break clause in 2027 and active parliamentary pressure to exercise it—will be the true test of whether the moat holds; if it fails there, the multiple collapses.
At post $170.30·Now $196.75+15.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-0.5%
1w-1.8%
1m+12.8%
3m—
6m—
1y—
“Late 2027 PLTR puts”
The AI Trade is Dead, OpenAI and Anthropic undershot the moon, pressure private equity
Palantir will face pressure from the unwinding of AI spending and the broader collapse of unprofitable LLM infrastructure investments. The author holds puts on the expected decline.
At post $175.89·Now $196.75+11.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-1.8%
3d+5.7%
1w+6.0%
1m+9.0%
3m—
6m—
1y—
Pltr yolo… again
Author is bullish on Palantir, expecting a substantial move to $200 by end of week. This is a speculative bet with minimal detailed reasoning.
At post $179.01·Now $196.75+9.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-2.6%
3d-2.6%
1w-2.7%
1m-6.5%
3m—
6m—
1y—
Pltr yolo
Author expects Palantir to rally above $200 this week following earnings, suggesting significant upside momentum ahead.
At post $175.23·Now $196.75+12.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-0.2%
3d+2.0%
1w-1.5%
1m-3.3%
3m—
6m—
1y—
“2x leverage $PLTR”
5/13/26 trades
Author believes in PLTR long-term and is holding a leveraged 2x position despite current losses, expecting the dip to be bought up like other trades taken that day. Willing to hold for another week to see recovery.
At post $130.05·Now $196.75+51.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+2.8%
3d+3.0%
1w+5.5%
1m-1.6%
3m+34.5%
6m—
1y—
When Will It Pop
Palantir has experienced unsustainable 800%+ gains driven by market speculation and AI enthusiasm rather than fundamental improvements. The author questions whether valuations can remain at these elevated levels.
At post $130.05·Now $196.75+51.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+2.8%
3d+3.0%
1w+5.5%
1m-1.6%
3m+34.5%
6m—
1y—
“65k in options”
Transferring the profits from META and SNDK into PLTR again! Not bad to give back what you earned the same way you made it
Author is reinvesting $65k in options profits from META and SNDK into PLTR, signaling confidence in PLTR as a vehicle for continued gains.
At post $144.07·Now $196.75+36.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+1.4%
1w-4.4%
1m+8.7%
3m-15.1%
6m—
1y—
My last hurrah....PLTR to 1T
Author has strong conviction that Palantir will reach $1T market cap within 5 years. Deploying all available capital via $1,000 bi-weekly auto-buy of shares plus 2x $125 call options expiring Jan 2028, betting on sustained long-term appreciation.
At post $143.09·Now $196.75+37.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+0.0%
1w+0.7%
1m-4.3%
3m-13.8%
6m+41.0%
1y—
$PLTRr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbearish u/m86zed · 192d agono track record yet Palantir ($PLTR) at $136: The CEO's jet budget grew faster than international revenue. I ran a DCF, Monte Carlo, and zero out of 10,000 simulations justified the current price.
Palantir trades at 71x revenue and 215x trailing earnings, implying valuations ($136/share) that cannot be justified by fundamentals. The author's DCF analysis, Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 runs), and peer comparisons all suggest fair value between $15-30, with zero simulations justifying the current price even under bull-case assumptions. International revenue growth has stalled while SBC dilution and capital allocation remain structural headwinds.
At post $142.15·Now $196.75+38.4% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+0.4%
3d+3.0%
1w+7.4%
1m-5.7%
3m-5.9%
6m+47.0%
1y—
Long PLTR $50P exp Dec 31
Michael Burry Speaks - He bought put options on PLTR at price of $50 expiring in 2027.
Michael Burry's fund has taken a short position via put options on Palantir at a $50 strike expiring in 2027, indicating a bearish view on the stock.
At post $170.69·Now $196.75+15.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+3.2%
3d+6.5%
1w+6.5%
1m+4.1%
3m-15.0%
6m-8.3%
1y—
palantir millionaire in <8months
Author holds a large Palantir position expecting the stock to reach $464/share within 5-10 years (October 2029-2034), predicting a millionaire-level gain from an initial $250k investment at $45/share.
At post $141.41·Now $196.75+39.1% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-2.3%
3d-1.0%
1w-1.1%
1m+6.7%
3m+21.2%
6m+29.8%
1y-5.8%
PLTR: The Most Overvalued Stock in History
Palantir is trading at a P/S ratio of 100, the highest for any large-cap stock in history, with valuation completely disconnected from fundamentals. Despite revenue growth of 34% and <$3B in 2024 sales, the stock is priced similarly to Zoom at its peak (which fell 90%) but with significantly weaker growth projections—making it the next Cisco or Zoom, not the next Nvidia.
At post $123.77·Now $196.75+59.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-10.7%
1w-5.2%
1m+7.6%
3m+24.6%
6m+62.0%
1y+18.0%