| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| 3d | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 1w | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -1.7% | -1.7% |
| 1m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +18.3% | +18.3% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Meta is lagging in the AI race and will face sustained FCF pressure from massive CAPEX spending. Rising analyst price targets ahead of earnings are a bull trap; the stock will decline as negative FCF and lack of meaningful Muse monetization become apparent.
UBER is now profitable and the recent robotaxi-driven selloff is unwarranted given regulatory and operational barriers to autonomous vehicle adoption. The Delivery Hero acquisition provides significant geographic diversification into 99+ countries across emerging markets and Europe, supporting mid-term (3-year) value creation despite current near-term headwinds.
META faces significant headwinds from escalating capex spending through 2028 with no clear monetization path for computing infrastructure, and next earnings will disappoint on both missed guidance and continued capex growth. The author expects a correction to $560 or below before considering LEAPS entry.
Author expects Meta to announce AI monetization at next earnings, driving stock upward. Even if AI announcement disappoints, author plans to average down on remaining $80k dry powder as stock potentially dips to $520-530.
Author expects Meta to rally to $600 by December due to sector rotation when Nvidia delivers, combined with anticipated capex reduction of 10-20%. Plans to deploy $100k into $155 calls if Meta dips to $565.
End of results.