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u/jackandjillonthehill

5 theses · first seen Oct 20, 2026
WindowThesesResolvedWinsWin rateAvg returnMedian return
1d44125%+1.4%+1.0%
3d54125%+1.7%+1.0%
1w54250%+4.3%+3.0%
1m54375%-6.0%-2.7%
3m100—-0.8%-0.8%
6m100—-5.9%-5.9%
1y100—-5.6%-5.6%

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$GOOGr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish
u/jackandjillonthehill · 32d ago4 prior · awaiting results

Making sense of Muse, the agentic model, and evaporating cash flow at META and GOOG

Google faces an even steeper cash flow problem than Meta: it already has negative FCF in Q2 2026, and launching an agentic product will push FCF further negative due to token-cost economics. Although Google has better consumer trust and existing payment/email access, the fundamental variable-cost model of agentic AI makes profitability untenable.

At post $334.93Now $280.68-16.2% since posted2m ago
1d+1.6%
3d+1.6%
1w+3.0%
1m-16.9%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$METAr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbearish
u/jackandjillonthehill · 32d ago4 prior · awaiting results

Making sense of Muse, the agentic model, and evaporating cash flow at META and GOOG

Meta's free agentic Muse model generates massive token consumption with unclear monetization strategy. The variable costs of token-intensive agentic tasks will likely outpace any transaction-fee revenue, driving free cash flow further into decline despite near-term optimization claims.

At post $725.93Now $612.13-15.7% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d+0.3%
3d+0.3%
1w-0.7%
1m-15.3%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$TIPr/ValueInvestingDiscussionbullish
u/jackandjillonthehill · 68d ago4 prior · awaiting results

Are TIPS value?

Long-duration 30-year TIPS currently offer ~6% nominal returns (2.93% real yield plus expected 3.5% CPI), providing attractive risk-adjusted value compared to S&P 500's 4.9% forward earnings yield, despite duration volatility.

At post $107.44live price unavailable
1d-0.5%
3d-0.5%
1w-0.4%
1m-2.7%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$DXCr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/jackandjillonthehill · 68d ago4 prior · awaiting results

Anyone looked at DXC? P/FCF of 2X

DXC trades at 1.8-2.1x forward P/FCF with a declining but still-positive cash flow generation machine. Despite legacy business headwinds and multi-year revenue decline, the company has modest optionality from monetizing the high-margin Hogan platform via usage-based pricing and potential on-premise server demand from AI, while actively returning cash via debt paydown and buybacks.

At post $10.55Now $14.86+40.9% since posted2m ago
1d+4.3%
3d+6.3%
1w+10.2%
1m+0.9%
3m—
6m—
1y—
original post →
$NKEr/ValueInvestingDiscussionneutral
u/jackandjillonthehill · 780d ago4 prior · awaiting results

How Nike became “uncool”

Nike trades at a discount (low-20s PE vs. historical low-30s range) amid strategic missteps under CEO Donahoe, including overproduction of rare sneakers, neglected product development, and a DTC-focused strategy that backfired by ceding retail shelf space to competitors. The stock is a battleground between those bullish on Nike's intrinsic quality and those concerned about lasting brand damage and market share loss.

At post $74.83Now $39.51-47.2% since postedas of Nov 2, 2:00 PM ET
1d—
3d+1.0%
1w+9.5%
1m+4.0%
3m-0.8%
6m-5.9%
1y-5.6%
original post →

End of results.