| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | -0.7% | -1.7% |
| 3d | 6 | 6 | 2 | 33% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| 1w | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | -1.2% | -0.6% |
| 1m | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| 3m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 6m | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Author is taking a $214K position in 36,200 shares at $5.90 cost basis, betting on upside to $9.00 based on the stock bouncing off the 50-day moving average. Position is being held until either that target or before Google earnings.
Author is betting on a sharp SPY decline at market open Monday, holding 220 put contracts (735 strike, 7/20/26 expiry) purchased at the bottom of a recent sell-off. The thesis is based on perceived weakness (SPY below 744, QQQ failing to reclaim 700) signaling a potential bear market move.
Author is bullish on BE after a bounce from the 230 support level and plans to hold 1,100 margin shares through earnings end of month. They're selling naked puts and covered calls to reduce margin exposure while waiting for the anticipated move higher.
Author holds 1,100 shares of $BE on margin and is currently margin called. Betting that $BE holds support at $240 and will recover through earnings, planning to sell covered calls to reduce exposure and avoid forced liquidation.
Author holds 4.00 calls expiring 5/15 on KEEL (formerly BITF), already in-the-money ahead of Monday earnings. Expects strong upside run on earnings beat.
Author holds 60 MSTR 200 call contracts purchased at $1.79 each, betting on upside move through earnings. Position suggests conviction in stock appreciation.
End of results.