u/JoeInOR

15 theses · first seen Aug 21, 2026

Window	Theses	Resolved	Wins	Win rate	Avg return	Median return
1d	13	11	8	73%	+3.0%	+1.5%
3d	13	11	7	64%	+3.8%	+1.0%
1w	13	11	8	73%	+3.7%	+2.4%
1m	4	4	2	50%	-1.6%	-0.7%
3m	0	0	0	—	—	—
6m	0	0	0	—	—	—
1y	0	0	0	—	—	—

Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$NFLXr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral

u/JoeInOR · 40d ago14 prior · awaiting results

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

NFLX has modest 2.72% yield but passes growth criteria with 16.76-year Y220, supported by 15 years of behavioral data and potential data-driven competitive advantage. The uncertainty around whether content UX and data constitute durable moats leaves the directional thesis unresolved.

At post $81.46Now $67.31-17.4% since postedas of Oct 5, 3:31 PM ET

1d-2.0%

3d+0.3%

1w+1.6%

1m-12.7%

3m—

6m—

1y—

u/JoeInOR

Thesis history

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

Peter Lynch said invest in what you know. I worked at Stride (LRN), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Nike (NKE). Here's a little of what I saw and what the true FCF data says.

Peter Lynch said invest in what you know. I worked at Stride (LRN), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Nike (NKE). Here's a little of what I saw and what the true FCF data says.

Peter Lynch said invest in what you know. I worked at Stride (LRN), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Nike (NKE). Here's a little of what I saw and what the true FCF data says.

The True FCF yield on the S&P 500 is running 2.51% below the 10-year treasury. That negative risk premium has shown up a few times since 1987, and it doesn't portend good things...

Florida homeowners insurer HCI Group: 18% true FCF yield, $4B reinsurance program, legally mandated customer pipeline from Citizens Insurance. I also pulled 15 years of data instead of just the good 3. The honest normalized yield is closer to 12%. Here's why I still own it.

Adobe is down 40% from its highs while generating $8.25B in true annual FCF with 10% topline growth. I think it died of a theory, not an actual threat. Here's the data including deferred revenue, government contract data from USASpending.gov, and a bear case.