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u/JoeInOR

3 theses · first seen Aug 21, 2026
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Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.

Thesis history

$CMCSAr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/JoeInOR · 3d ago2 prior · awaiting results
“That's my Godfather number, the offer I can't refuse. I own some CMCSA.”

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

CMCSA yields 20% true FCF, representing the author's 'Godfather number' threshold of acceptable yield relative to growth and risk.

At post $26.20Now $26.85+2.5% since postedas of Aug 21, 4:59 PM ET
original post →
$LLYr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/JoeInOR · 3d ago2 prior · awaiting results
“Not a position but I watch it closely.”

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

LLY passes the Y220 screen despite failing the current yield test, with parabolic revenue growth and aggressive share retirement offsetting valuation concerns; early GLP-1 innings offer durability questions but compelling optionality.

At post $1,225.73Now $1,255.40+2.4% since postedas of Aug 21, 4:59 PM ET
original post →
$LYFTr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish
u/JoeInOR · 3d ago2 prior · awaiting results
“I took a small starter position based on this screen.”

I built a new metric called Y220. Given a company's true FCF yield today and its 3-year revenue CAGR, how long until it reaches 20% yield?

LYFT's Y220 metric (years to reach 20% true FCF yield) is attractive due to strong revenue growth trajectory combined with aggressive buyback programs, suggesting compelling value creation potential.

At post $16.93Now $17.47+3.2% since postedas of Aug 21, 4:59 PM ET
original post →

End of results.