Adobe Conditional Long at $230 per share as of Sept. 29th
Adobe is attractively priced at $230 with strong professional moats in creative workflows and subscriptions that should largely survive AI disruption. The market has overpriced long-term pessimism; while AI may reduce seats and margins, the switching costs of embedded teams and processes provide a reasonable margin of safety at a 7.9% owner's earnings yield.
At post $270.55·Now $263.82-2.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-2.5%
3d—
1w—
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
I think AI could eventually destroy the terminal value of Adobe, Autodesk, and other design software
AI-assisted reverse engineering and free open-source alternatives will eventually erode Adobe's ability to maintain pricing power and sustain high terminal value assumptions. Long-term cash flow sustainability is at risk despite near-term customer retention.
At post $245.20·Now $263.82+7.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+0.8%
1w+7.6%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Try Recreating the Same Logo Twice With AI. Then Tell Me Adobe Is Dead.
Adobe's moat remains strong despite AI disruption due to high switching costs, ecosystem lock-in (hundreds of terabytes of existing files), steep learning curves for professionals, and the reality that production-ready, consistent brand assets still require professional software rather than AI-generated images. Recent AI-branded competitors lack the functionality, support, and dedication to displace Adobe.
At post $236.28·Now $263.82+11.7% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+1.9%
3d+3.8%
1w+8.7%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
My take on ADBE as ex SWE at Adobe
Adobe is a value trap, not a value stock. Poor management, lack of strategic vision, failed Firefly AI integration, and widespread use of superior third-party models despite heavy investment suggest the company is deteriorating and unprepared to compete.
At post $238.14·Now $263.82+10.8% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-0.8%
1w+3.0%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
$ADBEr/wallstreetbetsYOLObullish u/hazxrrd · 14d ago2 prior · 100% at 3mo Long ADBE $250C exp Dec 17 · 21 contracts
$100K in $ADBE Calls
Author is bullish on ADBE and has accumulated 21 long call contracts at the 250 strike expiring 12/17/2027, positioning for upside appreciation above a ~$295 breakeven by expiry.
At post $242.27·Now $263.82+8.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-1.7%
1w+1.2%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Long ADBE $235P exp Oct 30 · 10 contracts
ADBE Imminent Decline - Cloned Software
A feature-complete open-source clone (ArtCraft) mimicking Adobe's interface directly will displace a significant portion of Creative Cloud users, particularly small companies, individual creatives, and hobbyists (~17-25% of Adobe's revenue). Even if Adobe pursues legal action, the software has already spread and legal precedent is insufficient to contain it, accelerating customer migration and triggering SaaS renewal fear.
At post $242.27·Now $263.82+8.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-1.7%
1w+1.2%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Adobe keeps growing and is buying back shares like CRAZY. Is AI the end for the company?
Adobe's 9-year revenue growth to $25.2B, 89.4% gross margins, and aggressive share buybacks (20% reduction over 9 years) support a higher valuation despite AI disruption concerns. DCF analysis across conservative to base scenarios suggests fair value between $345–$513 per share, with current price around $240 appearing undervalued.
At post $242.27·Now $263.82+8.9% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-1.7%
1w+1.2%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
“Harding Loevner Global Equity maintains holding”
5 fund managers on the stocks the market calls "AI losers" (Aug-Sep 2026 letters)
Adobe's prior AI disruption concerns are abating as the market reassesses. The company has generated over $500 million in AI-related annual recurring revenue and outperformed in August as software/services sentiment improved.
At post $232.77·Now $263.82+13.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+3.6%
3d+4.1%
1w+3.4%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Long ADBE $150P exp Mar 19 · 50 contracts
ADOBE is cooked.
Adobe faces existential competition from free or cheap AI-powered alternatives, open-source clones like ArtCraft achieving feature parity, and generative AI making traditional editing workflows obsolete. Core metrics show deterioration (net new ARR down 37% YoY, RPO declining, organic growth ~9%), and while enterprise workflows remain defensible, individual users (students, freelancers) are already abandoning the $70/month subscription.
At post $232.77·Now $263.82+13.3% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+3.6%
3d+4.1%
1w+3.4%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
“Rotating into Adobe”
I’m rotating some money out of AI. This may age terribly.
Adobe at $235 offers an attractive 9% economic FCF yield and needs only 6% FCF/share growth to clear the author's 12.5% return hurdle, representing a better risk-reward than overvalued AI stocks.
At post $231.01·Now $263.82+14.2% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d+0.9%
1w+2.9%
1m—
3m—
6m—
1y—
Is Adobe in trouble or are we still bullish?
Author bought ADBE around $195 and intends to hold for a year or more despite a recent 12% dip. Believes a near-term bounce is likely and views the CEO transition as a short-term uncertainty rather than a fundamental break in the investment thesis.
At post $248.83·Now $263.82+6.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+1.4%
3d+1.4%
1w+1.5%
1m-2.6%
3m—
6m—
1y—
Where I think the market is mispricing quality: 10 valuation dislocations for the next 3–5 years
Adobe at ~11x forward earnings has already priced in significant AI disruption risk. Despite real AI competition, double-digit subscription growth and rising AI usage suggest the stock can work from this valuation without Adobe dominating the AI transition.
At post $257.26·Now $263.82+2.5% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d-3.3%
1w+3.2%
1m-9.5%
3m—
6m—
1y—
Is Adobe (ADBE) actually under valued?
ADBE is trading at a significant discount to its own 5-year average and to peer median valuations across P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales metrics. Despite superior operating margins, gross margins, and return on invested capital versus industry peers, the stock trades at 44-50% discount on key multiples, suggesting undervaluation.
At post $279.79·Now $263.82-5.7% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d+2.1%
3d-4.7%
1w-8.9%
1m-15.0%
3m—
6m—
1y—
$ADBEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisbullish u/JoeInOR · 103d ago3 prior · 100% at 3mo Adobe is down 40% from its highs while generating $8.25B in true annual FCF with 10% topline growth. I think it died of a theory, not an actual threat. Here's the data including deferred revenue, government contract data from USASpending.gov, and a bear case.
Adobe is down 40% from highs but generates $8.25B+ true annual FCF with 10% topline growth. The stock decline reflects AI-replacement theory rather than actual business deterioration. Deferred revenue acceleration, procurement moat evident in government contracts, and 9.3% FCF yield suggest the market mispriced the valuation while cash generation remains robust.
At post $230.61·Now $263.82+14.4% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-4.3%
3d+2.0%
1w+1.8%
1m+12.2%
3m+5.1%
6m—
1y—
$ADBEr/wallstreetbetsYOLObullish u/hazxrrd · 112d ago2 prior · 100% at 3mo Long ADBE $200C exp Dec 17 · 2 contracts
$70K in $ADBE Calls
Secondary position of 2 call contracts at $200 strike (Dec 2027), purchased after recent earnings weakness, indicating conviction in Adobe's recovery and upside potential.
At post $218.07·Now $263.82+21.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d—
1w+2.6%
1m+14.8%
3m+10.6%
6m—
1y—
$ADBEr/wallstreetbetsYOLObullish u/hazxrrd · 112d ago2 prior · 100% at 3mo Long ADBE $250C exp Dec 17 · 13 contracts
$70K in $ADBE Calls
Author is bullish on Adobe long-term, holding 13 call contracts (250 strike, Dec 2027 expiry) at $46.67 avg and 2 call contracts (200 strike) at $47.48 each, with breakeven at $300 at expiration. The strategy reflects conviction through averaging down during recent weakness.
At post $218.07·Now $263.82+21.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d—
1w+2.6%
1m+14.8%
3m+10.6%
6m—
1y—
“ATM LEAP at 270, bought 2 (one at $260 entry, second after drop to $210)”
10k ADBE calls
Adobe is undervalued at 10x forward P/E as a media company but positioned to be recognized as an AI stock. With proprietary Firefly training on Adobe Stock and leadership void likely resolved within months, the stock should re-rate upward as investors shift narrative from legacy software to AI enablement.
At post $218.07·Now $263.82+21.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d—
1w+2.6%
1m+14.8%
3m+10.6%
6m—
1y—
“Already started building positions in a few of these”
Why the SaaS crash is a massive gift (The Peter Lynch Play)
SaaS giant trading at depressed valuation due to AI panic. Next two earnings will likely show fundamentals intact and growth continuing despite market fears. Tax-loss harvesting selling in Q4 presents a buying opportunity before eventual price recovery.
At post $197.43·Now $263.82+33.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-0.4%
3d+2.7%
1w+3.8%
1m+7.5%
3m+26.4%
6m—
1y—
SaaS Reality
Adobe has triple-beat earnings and raised guidance for four consecutive quarters with AI-driven acceleration. At a $70B market cap with $25B in buybacks authorized while maintaining strong fundamentals and no seat/price compression, it trades at historically low valuations relative to revenue growth and is undervalued by market.
At post $195.16·Now $263.82+35.2% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d—
3d—
1w-0.9%
1m+21.6%
3m+28.4%
6m—
1y—
“I own shares and remain pretty bullish”
Adobe is now flirting with single digit SBC adjusted FCF multiples
Adobe trades at a compressed 10x FCF multiple despite solid 10% organic revenue growth, stable margins, and strong cash generation ($8.3B TTM FCF). With no material evidence of disruption from AI competition and a balance sheet capable of supporting buybacks, the stock offers attractive value relative to its historical trading range.
At post $218.80·Now $263.82+20.6% since postedas of Oct 23, 4:45 PM ET
1d-6.8%
3d-6.8%
1w-10.8%
1m+2.2%
3m+16.5%
6m—
1y—