| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| 3d | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -1.4% | -1.4% |
| 1w | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | -1.6% | -1.6% |
| 1m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +1.1% | +1.1% |
| 3m | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| 6m | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | +7.0% | +7.0% |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Amazon's margins are expanding through advertising and AWS growth, with differentiated cloud products offering high switching costs. The company's custom CPU offerings (Trainium) and overall cloud build-out are underappreciated catalysts driving long-term profitability.
Gold miners remain undervalued; with Q3 earnings reported at $3,300 per ounce and low downside risk, the risk/reward is attractive.
Intuit presents an interesting opportunity after the recent SaaS sector correction, with upside potential from current valuations.
ServiceNow is becoming increasingly attractive following the SaaS sell-off, with reasonable upside from current levels.
Magnitude 7 stocks (excluding Tesla) are undervalued at market near all-time highs, presenting 15%+ upside opportunities over the next year.
AWS's high-margin growth (20% in Q3, 60% of operating income) is obscured by low-margin retail revenue. AI workloads, which are cloud-native and computationally intensive, will drive AWS reacceleration, while advertising (50%+ margins) adds upside. Author expects 30% appreciation to high 200s by end of 2026.
End of results.