| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
RELX offers B+ durability with strong valuation dislocation. The market underestimates how embedded its proprietary data, workflows and decision tools are; while AI may change the interface, it does not remove the underlying competitive moat.
Intuit exhibits B+ long-term durability with strong valuation dislocation. While simple tax filing faces AI and IRS alternative risks, the broader ecosystem around tax, accounting, payroll, payments and financial data is harder to displace, supporting an attractive risk-reward at current prices.
Nvidia's $530B in off-balance-sheet commitments represent an increasing shift toward financial backstopping of its AI ecosystem rather than pure supply. While current AI demand may be genuine, reliance on vendor financing as a demand indicator creates a valuation dislocation risk over the 3–5-year horizon, with longer-term fundamentals becoming highly uncertain.
Microsoft is ranked #10 in a valuation dislocation study, suggesting the author believes the market is mispricing it relative to business quality and expects outperformance over 3–5 years.
Autodesk is ranked #8 in a valuation dislocation study, indicating the author views it as mispriced relative to business quality with 3–5 year outperformance potential.
Nvidia at ~17.5x forward earnings has room for some normalization; the author entered it in the Top 10 after Q2 results but weights financing risk, cash conversion, and eventual cyclicality as limiting factors versus other holdings.
Meta's social infrastructure is difficult to replace and its valuation does not require the market's full AI hopes to be realized. The author views the stock as undervalued despite heavy spending pressures.
Adobe at ~11x forward earnings has already priced in significant AI disruption risk. Despite real AI competition, double-digit subscription growth and rising AI usage suggest the stock can work from this valuation without Adobe dominating the AI transition.
RELX is ranked #2 in a valuation dislocation study, suggesting the author believes the market is mispricing it relative to business quality and expects outperformance over 3–5 years.
Intuit trades at ~15x FY27 earnings with room for margin expansion and profit growth outpacing revenue slowdown. If customer growth stabilizes, the market is too pessimistic on valuation, and AI should strengthen its position as a financial system of record.
End of results.