| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
ORCL has over-committed to AI capex without commensurate revenue generation and will face repricing as the market discovers no company has actually become more profitable through LLM adoption.
TQQQ is a leveraged play on the Nasdaq that will suffer disproportionately when tech valuations compress due to failed AI ROI expectations and forced deleveraging by major institutional holders.
SNDK is caught in the AI capex downcycle and faces pressure from major holders liquidating positions; the author expects declines as the narrative around profitable AI applications collapses.
PLTR is overvalued and exposed to AI bubble deflation; the author expects the stock to decline as AI-related capital investments fail to materialize profits and private equity unwinds positions.
NVDA has overextended compute investments in LLMs that will never generate sufficient returns; the company and its peers will hold massive unrealized losses and are orchestrating a gradual share offload to retail before an inevitable market correction driven by the insolvency of AI models.
End of results.