| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 3d | 10 | 10 | 4 | 40% | -2.1% | -2.2% |
| 1w | 10 | 10 | 4 | 40% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| 1m | 10 | 10 | 5 | 50% | -1.5% | +0.5% |
| 3m | 10 | 10 | 6 | 60% | +4.6% | +3.9% |
| 6m | 10 | 10 | 6 | 60% | +13.2% | +13.4% |
| 1y | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Allstate has strong financials with growing free cash flow, cash on hand, and revenue at a compelling 5-6x P/E ratio. The valuation represents significant upside potential relative to fundamental growth.
UnitedHealth is risky due to government healthcare policy threats and legal troubles, but insider buying by Congress and Warren Buffett, plus analyst support, suggest 2-5 year investors could see 3-4x returns if headwinds resolve.
General Mills is undervalued at 10x P/E with growing free cash flow and a 5% dividend. The stock offers defensive value during market turbulence with improving operational metrics.
Duolingo fell to $119 and now trades at 15x P/E with excellent financials. Despite high risk from competitive alternatives and AI disruption, limiting exposure to 1-2% of portfolio makes it a reasonable speculative bet.
Levi's is a recognized brand with solid free cash flow, revenue, and profit growth at a 15x P/E and 2.28% dividend. Though consumer discretionary carries economic sensitivity, the long-term fundamentals justify a position.
S&P Global is trading at 30-31x P/E, which represents a good deal given its moat in financial analysis and data. AI cannot replicate the company's analytical knowledge yet, only information retrieval and simplification.
Netflix is finally at a good price after entering at $79.83, and a potential WB merger could unlock value through better production studios, gaming, comics, and content expansion. The company remains the streaming leader outside YouTube.
Adobe is trading at an attractive 16x P/E and carries a compelling thesis despite AI and competitive threats. Artists and designers currently resist AI tools for their work, supporting the company's moat in creative software.
Amazon dipped below $200 and the author regrets missing the opportunity to buy more shares. At 29x P/E with Prime Video as the second-largest streaming platform and growing fundamentals, the stock is attractive during the selloff.
Microsoft is growing 24% annually and trading at a reasonable 22-23x forward P/E. The company's value extends well beyond AI partnerships, making it a solid growth stock to accumulate during market pullbacks.
End of results.