| Window | Theses | Resolved | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Median return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3d | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1w | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Past performance does not predict future results. Informational only, not investment advice.
Apple's forward owner earnings yield of 2.8% is the lowest among the six companies and well below the author's >10% valuation threshold. The company offers insufficient return on owner earnings at current market cap.
Microsoft's forward owner earnings yield of 3.7% (base case) to 0.5% (strict case) falls significantly short of the >10% required return threshold. Despite being least burdened by capex among peers, it remains overvalued on Buffett-adjusted earnings.
Amazon's forward owner earnings yield of 4.1% (base case) to -1.0% (strict case) is below the author's investment threshold of >10%. Heavy AI infrastructure capex makes the valuation unattractive on an owner earnings basis.
Alphabet's forward owner earnings yield of 4.3% (base case) to -1.5% (strict case) fails to meet the >10% hurdle rate for value-oriented investors. AI capex intensity significantly erodes true owner earnings.
Oracle's forward owner earnings yield of 4.8% (base case) to -9.9% (strict case) is insufficient for value investors following Buffett's framework. Heavy capex for AI infrastructure makes the company unattractive at current $429B valuation.
Meta's forward owner earnings yield of 4.8% (base case) to -2.7% (strict case, including all capex) falls well short of the author's >10% threshold for acceptable valuations. High capital intensity in AI infrastructure undermines attractiveness at current market cap.
End of results.