Intuit is down 61% in a year while earnings rose 20%. What's going on?
Intuit is priced for worse outcomes than current fundamentals suggest. TurboTax (25% of revenue) faces real AI-driven headwinds, but the core business—QuickBooks Online (growing 23%) and Credit Karma (growing 20%)—shows strength. At 4.5x sales excluding TurboTax versus a 10-year median of 10.3x, the non-TurboTax business is undervalued even as the market prices in structural decline across the entire company.
At post $274.43·Now $329.75+20.2% since posted8m ago
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$YOUr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral u/stockoscope · 41d ago12 prior · 70% at 3mo “no position on the date of publication”
CLEAR Secure (YOU) is down 42% from the 52 week high. Is the stock or the business broken?
YOU was repriced from growth-acceleration expectations to slower growth expectations following Q3 guidance of 20.5% bookings growth versus 32.8% prior delivery. The business fundamentals remain solid (94th percentile returns, 20.7% operating margin, strong free cash flow), but near-term growth deceleration is real. At $40 versus a $58 DCF fair value, the stock offers asymmetric value if the 16.6% growth assumption holds.
At post $40.11·Now $45.31+13.0% since postedas of Oct 23, 1:45 PM ET
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Six months ago we called Microsoft overvalued at $490 and got roasted for it. It's now $373. Here's where it stands.
Microsoft is now fairly valued to undervalued at $373 if AI capex normalizes to maintenance levels (fair value $487), reversing the overvaluation call at $490. The risk/reward has shifted from poor to attractive, with significant upside if capex does not remain permanently elevated.
At post $367.88·Now $528.39+43.6% since posted8m ago
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DUOL, HIMS, NKE and PYPL are all down 75-85% from their highs. Which selloffs are justified and which ones don't add up?
Hims shows real 28x revenue growth since 2019, though foundations are shakier with compressing margins and spiked debt. Fair value of $28 suggests 46% upside from current levels despite insider selling and institutional outflows.
At post $19.50·Now $28.23+44.7% since posted8m ago
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$NKEr/ValueInvestingStock Analysisneutral u/stockoscope · 204d ago12 prior · 70% at 3mo DUOL, HIMS, NKE and PYPL are all down 75-85% from their highs. Which selloffs are justified and which ones don't add up?
Nike's selloff is justified by deteriorating fundamentals: 10% revenue decline, 44% net income drop, and 51% free cash flow decline. Trading at 29x earnings for a declining business, fair value of ~$45 aligns with current price—the market has this right.
At post $41.87·Now $37.27-11.0% since posted8m ago
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DUOL, HIMS, NKE and PYPL are all down 75-85% from their highs. Which selloffs are justified and which ones don't add up?
Duolingo's 82% decline appears mispriced if AI can coexist with the platform. Revenue grew 38% last year with stable 72% gross margins and strong free cash flow generation of $370M. Fair value estimate of $239–$330 versus current depressed levels.
At post $96.29·Now $138.61+44.0% since posted8m ago
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DUOL, HIMS, NKE and PYPL are all down 75-85% from their highs. Which selloffs are justified and which ones don't add up?
PayPal's 85% selloff is unjustified. The business has quietly improved with free cash flow growing to $5.6B, operating margins improving, and ROE at all-time highs. Trading at 8x earnings with 13% FCF yield suggests fair value of $97–$110 versus current $45.
At post $44.61·Now $55.76+25.0% since posted37m ago
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Tech stocks lost $1 trillion this week despite beating earnings. Here's why.
Microsoft's ~$150B capex trajectory alongside other hyperscalers signals mounting concerns about AI monetization viability. The gap between reported depreciation (6 years) and actual GPU obsolescence (2-3 years) creates a structural cash flow crisis as competitive pressure forces accelerated capital replacement.
At post $398.61·Now $528.39+32.6% since posted8m ago
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Tech stocks lost $1 trillion this week despite beating earnings. Here's why.
Meta's planned capex of $115-135B in 2026 (vs $72B in 2025) exemplifies the unsustainable infrastructure spending cycle. Rapid GPU obsolescence (2-3 years vs 6-year depreciation schedules) creates a hidden cash drain that threatens profitability even as the company invests heavily in AI.
At post $659.76·Now $612.25-7.2% since posted8m ago
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Tech stocks lost $1 trillion this week despite beating earnings. Here's why.
Amazon's capex surging to $200B in 2026 (from $131.8B in 2025) reflects the capex-to-GDP crisis that Burry warned about. The infrastructure spending surge undermines free cash flow despite beating cloud revenue expectations, suggesting the AI monetization math may not hold.
At post $210.32·Now $252.28+19.9% since posted8m ago
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Tech stocks lost $1 trillion this week despite beating earnings. Here's why.
Google's capex spending ($175-185B in 2026) signals unsustainable infrastructure costs. GPUs depreciated over 6 years become economically obsolete in 2-3 years, masking true capital expenditure and threatening free cash flow conversion despite strong revenue growth.
At post $322.23·Now $323.40+0.4% since posted8m ago
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Understanding Michael Burry's Nvidia short: The real thesis explained
Microsoft's reported earnings are overstated by 11–14% if GPU depreciation is adjusted from 6 years to the realistic 3-year economic life. This shifts intrinsic value from $384.93 to $311.49 per share (37% below current price), while higher capex intensity (>20% of revenue) further erodes free cash flow and enterprise value.
At post $483.67·Now $528.39+9.3% since posted8m ago
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Understanding Michael Burry's Nvidia short: The real thesis explained
Burry argues that hyperscaler customers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are economically misstating GPU capital expenditures by depreciating chips over 5–6 years when their true economic life is 2–3 years. This inflates their reported earnings and masks deteriorating capex-to-revenue ratios. Once CFOs recognize the accounting reality and tighten spending, Nvidia demand will collapse, devastating a pure-play company priced for indefinite exponential growth.
At post $179.49·Now $217.65+21.3% since posted8m ago
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